latviski
III. ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION OF THE BALTIC STATES
The Vice-President of the United States of America, Mr. Henry Wallace, mentioned in one of his speeches that the post-war reconstruction of the war-stricken nations should in order of importance commence with the restoration of transport, followed by that of agriculture and then of industry.
Although the Baltic States are predominantly agricultural countries and our first thought should therefore be given to the reconstruction of agriculture, we may as well follow the suggestion of Mr. Wallace and in the first place estimate post-war requirements in the means of transport. After all, without movement there can be no life.
(1) Means of Transport (general observations)
No other branch of economic life has suffered more from war on the battlefields of Europe than transport. Modern warfare—the war of movement—is more than ever dependent on efficient communications, and the constant drain on the means of transport is therefore colossal. The unprecedented distances transport has to serve in the second World War, destruction and wear and tear will leave land transport after this war in a deplorable state. As the replacement of rolling-stock is bound to be of a long-term character, it will be for the motor industry in the first place to restore the land transport of the post-war world. It may, therefore, be assumed that the demand for commercial vehicles of all kinds after this war will be very considerable.
The means of transport in the Baltic States, such as rolling-stock and motor vehicles, have been severely depleted by requisitioning and other causes. According to available information, this deterioration and destruction are estimated to represent 40-80% of
It should be pointed out that motor transport in pre-war years was rapidly gaining importance in the Baltic States as a more convenient and cheaper means of transport than the railways. In Estonia, for instance, whilst the' volume of rolling-stock remained stationary, the number of lorries was doubled within the five prewar years, and the tonnage of goods carried as road haulage by motor transport in 1939 constituted one-third of that handled by the railways.
Motor-trucks, other than for use of agriculture
Before estimating the extent of post-war requirements of the Baltic States, in means of transport, the figures in regard to the freight-carrying capacity of the railways, as well as the number of motor-trucks in these countries, should be given :
Table No. 8 — Railways in the Baltic States
Railways in the Baltic States
Table No. 9 — Number of Motor-trucks
Number of Motor-trucks
Of the motor-trucks about two-thirds were engaged in road haulage outside the town limits. In the total transport of goods, in Estonia 25%, in Latvia 20%, and in Lithuania only a fraction was carried by motor-lorries.
In Estonia out of the 2,472 motor-trucks, 1,705 or 70% were employed in road haulage, i.e., freight transport outside the towns. The average tonnage carried per truck in 1939 was 560 tons of freight. At the same time the average tonnage distance of freight carried by a motor-truck in Estonia was 30 klms. and that of a railway wagon 96 klms. The average tonnage carried by a railway wagon was in Estonia and Lithuania about 500 tons, and in Latvia about 800 tons annually.
As previously explained, the replacement of railway rolling-stock would take a number of years. Therefore to restore railway transport it would be necessary to replace outright at least 50% of the deficient rolling-stock by motor-trucks.
When estimating post-war motor-truck requirements, the fact should not be lost sight of that although the annual carrying capacity of a railway wagon is practically equal to that of a motortruck, yet the considerably longer distances a truck has to cover as a substitute for the railway service would necessitate the employment of a proportionately higher number of trucks. For estimating purposes it is fair to assume that to replace a railway wagon two motor-lorries would be needed. It is also safe to postulate that post-war transport needs would amount to some 80% of the prewar total, since it is not to be expected that economic life in all branches will at once begin to function normally. At the same time, however, the reconstruction of economic life in the war-ravaged countries should not be allowed to languish through lack of means of transport.
Based on the above assumptions, the demand for motor-trucks to replace the loss of rolling-stock in the Baltic States would be as follows :
Table No. 10 — Rolling-stock to be replaced by Motor-trucks
Rolling-stock to be replaced by Motor-trucks
According to available information, the loss of motor-trucks in the Baltic States through the war is far higher than that of railway wagons. It should therefore be assumed that after this war hardly any means of motor transport will be left over in these countries. In estimating post-war requirements in motor-trucks proper it is, therefore, moderate to assume that the loss of these vehicles in the Baltic States is 70% of the pre-war numbers. As a matter of fact it has been reported that after the first fourteen months of foreign occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, only 10-20% of motor vehicles were left. In estimating post-war requirements in motor-lorries it has been assumed that this means of transport will have to be brought to 90% of the pre-war level. The rebuilding of destroyed homes and industries will create a big demand for motor traction.
Table No. 11 — Replacement of Losses of Motor-trucks
Replacement of Losses of Motor-trucks
The total number of motor-trucks required after the war by the Baltic States is (in round figures) :
Table No. 12 — Total number of motor-trucks required after the war
Total number of motor-trucks required after the war
Taking into consideration the type of roads in the Baltic States, it should be assumed that the most required type of motor-truck would be of a carrying capacity between 3-5 tons. In Estonia the motor-truck park according to carrying capacity was as follows : Up to 1 ton—12%, 1-2 tons—16%, 2-3 tons—15%, 3-4—tons 19%, 4-5 tons—31%, 5-6 tons—6% and over 6 tons—1%. As the bulk of the trucks will be required for road haulage, 3-5 ton lorries would be the most suitable.
The above estimate of requirements in motor-trucks does not include vehicles which will be needed by agriculture for replacement of horse traction. This question will be dealt with in a further paragraph of this report.
Motor-buses
Another mode of transport which for all practical purposes may be regarded as a total loss in the Baltic States is the motor-bus. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, the loss is shown as 80%. In view of the losses sustained in passenger railway carriages and in other means of passenger transport, the bus service should bo restored in full.
Table No. 13 — Motor-bus Requirements
Motor-bus Requirements
Passenger-cars
A conservative estimate of the loss of passenger-cars in the Baltic States is 50%. To restore the number of passenger-cars inTable No. 14 — Passenger-car Requirements
Passenger-car Requirements
The above estimate of passenger-car requirements after the war should be considered as a very conservative one, as in one year only (1938) Estonia imported 656, Latvia 504, and Lithuania 633 private cars.
(2) Reconstruction of Agriculture
Out of six millions of the population of the Baltic States over four millions were engaged in agriculture. On an average over half of their exports consisted of farm products. It is obvious, therefore, that next to the restoration of transport the foremost post-war aim in the Baltic States should be—to restore agriculture.
The war has denuded these countries of their manpower, and as a result the fields for a considerable time have been left poorly attended, and agricultural production has largely declined. Continuous severe requisitioning of livestock and of all kinds of farm products by the occupation authorities has had a further depressing effect upon agricultural output.
In order to restore agricultural output to a normal level, the first task of the Baltic States will be to make good the deficiency in live horse-power. It may be safely asserted that through the war at least one-third of the number of horses in these countries has been lost. In the next place agricultural implements will have to be replenished, and, lastly, the Baltic countries must be provided with an adequate quantity of fertilizers. If these fundamental conditions can be satisfied, then the complete restoration of agricultural production will be a matter of only a few years.
Live Horse-power
There were before the war in Estonia 218,000, in Latvia 390,000 and in Lithuania 521,000 horses, of which about seven-eighths were engaged in agriculture.
Available information shows that 25% of the total number of horses in the Baltic States were destroyed or requisitioned during the first fourteen months of foreign occupation of these countries. Further severe requisitioning of horses has taken place during the
Tractors
The use of the tractor in agriculture varies considerably according to the type and size of the agricultural unit and of topographical and climatic conditions. In broad outline it may be assumed that in the Baltic States, where the small holding is the predominant type of farm, the tractor can be used chiefly for field work such as ploughing, harrowing, sowing, etc. Since the only available data on the use of the tractor in agriculture in the Baltic States are those supplied by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research, it may be advisable to base estimates of these countries' post-war tractor needs on the figures emanating from that source.
In Estonia field labour engaged 27% of the total horse work on the farm. The ratio of horse-power used in field work in the Baltic States tends to vary, but it will be fair enough to assume that it averages 30% of the total horse work. But not all the horse-power used in field work can be replaced by tractors. If again we avail ourselves of the figures of Estonian research into the application of tractors to farm work, it appears that 70% of horse work in field cultivation is replaceable by tractors. Thus, of the total horse work on farms, about 21%, or say 20%, could be replaced by tractors.
According to statistical data, 173,305 horses and 1,792 tractors were engaged in agriculture in Estonia in 1939. It is reported that 52,000 horses were destroyed or requisitioned during 1940-41 by the occupation authorities. Seeing that about seven-eighths of the total horse population was engaged in farm work, it would appear that the depletion of horses on farms at that time amounted to 45,500. During the occupation of Estonia by Germany, the requisitioning of horses has continued. It is safe to assume that by the end of this war the total number of horses on farms in Estonia will not in any circumstances exceed two-thirds of the original figures, i.e., about 115,000 instead of 173,000, a decrease of 58,000.
During 1938-9 a horse on an Estonian farm worked on an average 1,472 hours and a tractor 700 hours per annum. One tractor working hour is regarded as equivalent to eight horse working hours. During the year under review 265 million horse work hours were done in Estonian agriculture, of which total 10 million hours pertained to tractors (i.e., 1.25 million tractor hours). On the basis of the foregoing estimate, i.e., 20% of the total work, the total
The application of the work of 6,600 tractors to farm labour would represent the maximum in utilization of tractor power in Estonian agriculture. It should, however, be noted that even in this case there will still be a shortage of horse-power, which will have to be replaced by a smaller type of truck suitable for country and field roads. We shall review this question in a later paragraph.
As tractors are needed for restoration of agriculture and not for the reclamation of new land for tillage, the light type of 10-20 H.P. tractor on wheels would be required.
It is estimated that each tractor working hour saves three labourers' hours. Thus 6,600 tractors working 1,000 hours each per annum would, on the basis of 3,000 hours per labourer per annum in Estonia, save the labour of 6,600 persons. As after the war there will be a shortage of labour in the Baltic States, the use of tractors will to a certain extent help to solve this problem.
Estimating the possibility of replacement of horse work in agriculture by tractors, on the basis of figures used for Estonia, the maximum tractor requirements in Latvia would be 11,000 and in Lithuania 16,000.
The above estimates respecting tractor requirements in the Baltic States after the war are made on the assumption that the maximum of horse work would be replaced by tractors. For various reasons, such as the size of the farms, unsuitable soil conditions, etc., it will not be possible to utilize tractors to the maximum extent, and considerable adjustments should therefore be made in the number of tractors required. In the case of Lithuania, the adjustment would be about 50% and in that of Estonia and Latvia about 33%. Thus the final tractor requirements in the Baltic States would be as follows :
Table No. 15 — Tractor Requirements
Tractor Requirements
In view of the fact that with the process of motorization of agriculture a certain amount of technical training would be necessary, the supply of the above number of tractors should be spread over two years.
Motor-trucks for agricultural use
In the previous paragraph we surveyed the question of replacement of horse-power in the agriculture of the Baltic States by tractors. From this survey it would appear that tractors could be used only in field work and would be able to replace in Estonia and Latvia about 13% and in Lithuania about 10% of the total horse labour.
With a view to bringing the horse-power engaged in agriculture in the Baltic States to the pre-war level, a further considerable replacement of horse labour is required. This would be possible in the transport service which, according to investigations made into the use of horse-power in Estonian agriculture, represents about 50% of the total horse work on farms. To this labour belongs the transport of milk products, crops, manure, fuel, materials, etc. Owing to road and climatic conditions in the Baltic States, it is difficult to use motor transport all the year round. In this connexion, too, the five months from December to April, to which period 30% of the total horse labour pertains in Estonia, are particularly difficult. On the other hand, certain transport work cannot be replaced by motor vehicles. On the whole it may be estimated that about 40% of transport work on the farms, or 20% of the total horse labour, can be replaced by motor-trucks.
Considering that (a) in the rural districts of the Baltic States sand and clay roads prevail, which are unsuitable for heavy traction ; (b) that field work, such as the transport of seed, crops and manure, can be carried on with light vehicles only, and (c) that the agricultural units are small, motor-trucks with a carrying capacity of about 15 cwts.1 to a ton would be the most suitable type for transport in those countries.
Estimates of motor-truck requirements for agricultural use in the Baltic States during the post-war period are based upon investigations into the use of horse-power in Estonia and adapted to the other two countries. In these estimates account has been taken of the fact that one-third of the pre-war number of horses have been lost, but that a certain proportion of horse labour has been replaced by tractors—to the extent foreshadowed in the previous paragraph in regard to tractors. The deficit of horse-power is made good by motor-trucks. The replacement of horse labour by one truck is estimated to be equivalent to the work of eight horses.
Table No. 16 — Agricultural Motor-truck Requirements
Agricultural Motor-truck Requirements
The total number of light motor-trucks required after this war, with a view to bringing the horse-power in agriculture in the Baltic States to its pre-war level, is 24,000.
The motorization of agriculture, as anticipated in this and previous paragraphs, still leaves a horse-power deficit in the Baltic States (see Table No. 16). When, too, it is realized that the quality of horses after the war will in all likelihood fall somewhat below the pre-war standard, the scale of motorization envisaged in the last two paragraphs cannot in any way be deemed excessive. For purposes of comparison it may be mentioned that in this country there are 120,000 tractors on 18 million ploughed acres of land, whereas for 12 million acres of ploughed land in the Baltic States only 20,600 tractors are envisaged in this report.
Agricultural Machinery to be used with Tractors
It may be safely assumed that during the present war little, if any, agricultural machinery has been renewed in the Baltic StatesThe employment of tractors in agriculture calls for the acquisition of a considerable quantity of machinery suitable only for such tractor work. If we take into consideration only three kinds of implements for use with tractors, such as ploughs, harrows and disc-harrows, in the respective ratios of 100%, 50% and 50% to the newly-acquired tractors, then the following quantity of machinery will be required in the Baltic States :
Table No. 17 — Quantity of Agricultural Machinery to be used with Tractors
Quantity of Agricultural Machinery to be used with Tractors
In addition to this machinery a number of other agricultural implements suitable for tractor work would be required by the Baltic States.
Agricultural Machinery other than used with Tractors
Before the war agricultural machinery constituted an important item of the Baltic States' import turnover. Each of these countries possesses a fair-sized industry for the manufacture of the simpler types of agricultural implements, such as hay-rakes, horse-ploughs, harrows, cultivators, potato-diggers, etc. But more complicated machinery was nearly all imported. To the latter group belong threshing-machines, corn-cutters, grass-mowers, seed-drills, etc.
It may be taken for granted that since 1940 practically no agricultural machinery has been imported into the Baltic States. It has also been ascertained that a certain amount of more valuable machinery was destroyed as part of the “scorched earth” policy adopted by the Russians during their hurried retreat from the Baltic. It is therefore obvious that by the end of this war the Baltic States will find their agricultural machinery both worn out and to a great extent depleted.
It is rather difficult to estimate the agricultural machinery requirements of the Baltic States in the immediate post-war years in the absence of information respecting the state of this machinery.
Table No. 18 — Quantity of Agricultural Machines in use in Estonia on 1.1.38
Quantity of Agricultural Machines in use in Estonia on 1.1.38
Table No. 19 — Imports of Agricultural Machinery into Estonia in 1936 and 1937
Imports of Agricultural Machinery into Estonia in 1936 and 1937
In Table No. 19 statistics are given of only such agricultural machinery as has been solely or chiefly imported. Home manufactured agricultural implements form about one quarter (in value) of the total new machinery purchased by the agricultural community in Estonia.
The principal suppliers of agricultural machinery (including tractors) for Estonia were, in order of their importance, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Soviet Russia. The chief import items from the United Kingdom were tractors and machinery to be used with tractors.
Taking into account the destruction of agricultural machinery through the war, wear and tear and the suspension of imports since 1940, it is reasonable to assume that the initial agricultural machinery requirements of the Baltic States during the first postwar year will be four times the average imports for 1936 and 1937. Admitting that the intensity of agriculture in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is virtually identical, and taking as a basis of calculation
Table No. 20 — Agricultural Machinery needed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the first post-war year
Agricultural Machinery needed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the first post-war year
The above should be considered as the immediate post-war requirements of the three Baltic States in more complicated agricultural machinery.
Fertilizers
The import of fertilizers during the immediate post-war years will be of the utmost importance, to the agriculture of the Baltic States. It is obvious that during the war only limited quantities of fertilizers have been imported into those countries. The pre-war imports of fertilizers of the Baltic States amounted to some 315,000 tons per annum, of which 60% were phosphates and the remainder more or less equally divided between nitrate and potassium fertilizers. In view of the shortage of fertilizers during the war years, the requirements under this bead should be estimated at about 460,000 tons in the first post-war year.
Of the three kinds of fertilizers, raw phosphates were imported from North Africa and Soviet Russia, superphosphates from the United Kingdom, Holland and Soviet Russia, nitrates from Germany and Chile, and potassium fertilizers from Germany. As after this war the possibility of importing phosphates from Soviet Russia and Holland may have to be discounted, the United Kingdom should be considered as virtually the sole supplier of the Baltic States' market under this head. Although a certain quantity of phosphate fertilizers will be obtained from the Estonian phosphate mining industry, it. may be estimated that during the first two postwar years about 200-250,000 tons of superphosphates per annum will have to be imported from the United Kingdom.
Man-power in Agriculture
During pre-war years unemployment was practically unknown in the Baltic States and foreign labour, especially for agriculture,
| 1 | 15 hundredweights equals 1,680 lb. or 762 kg. |
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